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Handicapping the DSP: Results

RANDOM MUSINGS on the fin-de-millénaire games scene . . .

21 November 2009 . . .

Finally the long overdue report on the DSP Awards predictions of last August.

First, many thanks to Trond Braut who pointed out what I had forgotten: games by Asmodée have this year begun to be distributed by the former ProLudo in Germany. This had dropped that game's predicted ranking when it should not have. On the other hand it didn't make much difference as the game apepared neither in the final slated of predictions nor in the top ten results.

But now on to the results:
N Prediction Result
1 Dominion Dominion
2 Le Havre Le Havre
3 Pandemic Pandemic
4 Space Alert Finca
5 Battlestar Galactica Small World
6 Small World Valdora
7 Chicago Express Diamonds Club
8 Automobile Im Wandel der Zeiten
9 A Castle for All Seasons Sherwood Forest
10 Descent: The Road to Legend Fauna


So what can be said?

Based on these observations, it cannot really be stated whether the methodology worked or not. Or maybe it did, since it was correct for the first three entries.

However, after that it is plain that voting is at present firmly attuned to Anglo-American style games. A while back the site began charging money to use its most popular sections. Now there's a good way to drive away a lot of your audience. Where did they go? Very clearly it was to BGG where these fans of war games, Anglo-American games and heavier games in general are shifting voting patterns in this direction. It has been my observation that even the hardest core war or railroad game players do play and rate other types of games sometimes. Of coruse, even if they do not, if they give high ratings for their favorites, the top Germans games will tend to be outranked.

As a consequence it appears this may be the last prediction that can be made because as things stand now, it appears that BGG ratings can no longer be employed to preduct DSP results as they once were. (Unless maybe the new site can serve.) In fact, it appears the BGG rankings are no longer a useful resource for finding the best, new German-style games. Perhaps some would claim they never were, but even a few years ago it was still a useful resource in that regard; this is now certainly no longer the case ...


by Rick Heli